Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 04/10, 03:00

Prediction: Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Team pages: Alacranes de Durango · Mineros de Zacatecas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Alacranes de Durango1.26

Mineros de Zacatecas1.18

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Alacranes de Durango Draw Mineros de Zacatecas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alacranes de Durango 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDDLWW

Mineros de Zacatecas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Alacranes de Durango 2–0 Mineros de Zacatecas (2 last)

Mineros de Zacatecas0-1Alacranes de Durango
Alacranes de Durango4-1Mineros de Zacatecas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alacranes de Durango 1502 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1523

	Alacranes de Durango	Draw	Mineros de Zacatecas
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alacranes de Durango: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alacranes de Durango	Mineros de Zacatecas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +1’	2.38	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:20 +55’	2.09	3.46	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alacranes de Durango 2–0–0 Mineros de Zacatecas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-1 HT 0-0	Alacranes de Durango
15/10/22 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Alacranes de Durango	4-1 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	16
6	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
7	Correcaminos	10	4	3	3	19	18	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	10	3	2	5	11	16	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alacranes de Durango	Mineros de Zacatecas
Dorados	1-0 W	2-2 D
Tlaxcala FC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Correcaminos	0-0 D	3-3 D
Piratas	0-3 L	3-0 W
Club Atletico La Paz	1-0 W	0-3 L
Tepatitlan FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alacranes de Durango

WWLLLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
18/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	9	10	W
11/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
05/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
29/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
23/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
16/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
01/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Mineros de Zacatecas

DWDWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
19/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	5-1	5	6	W
07/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
01/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
25/07	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-3	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alacranes de Durango win (38%). Probabilities: Alacranes de Durango 38%, draw 28%, Mineros de Zacatecas 34%.

How many goals are expected in Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Alacranes de Durango 1.26 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.