Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 03/10, 05:00

Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC

Team pages: Club Atletico La Paz · Venados FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Club Atletico La Paz2.23

Venados FC1.44

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Club Atletico La Paz Draw Venados FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico La Paz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWDWW

Venados FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Club Atletico La Paz 3–2–1 Venados FC (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz1-0Venados FC
Venados FC3-3Club Atletico La Paz
Venados FC2-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-1Venados FC
Venados FC2-3Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz3-1Venados FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1570 · Venados FC 1501

	Club Atletico La Paz	Draw	Venados FC
Our model	55%	22%	24%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1570 vs 1501).
H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico La Paz	Venados FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	2.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.8	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.38
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.87 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +18’	1.70	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +41’	1.55	4.36	4.78
02:15 +39’	1.56▲	4.43▲	4.86▲
14:21 +29’	1.56▲	4.38▼	4.87▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 3–2–1 Venados FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
23/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	3-3 HT 1-3	Club Atletico La Paz
08/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico La Paz
24/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC
28/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Club Atletico La Paz
25/04/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	16
6	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
7	Correcaminos	10	4	3	3	19	18	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	10	3	2	5	11	16	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	10	1	4	5	11	18	7
16	Tepatitlan FC	9	1	0	8	5	28	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico La Paz	Venados FC
Oaxaca	3-1 W	3-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	3-0 W	1-5 L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Piratas	2-0 W	1-2 L
Tepatitlan FC	5-0 W	5-0 W
Atletico Morelia	2-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico La Paz

LLWWDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/07	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-4	0	7	L

Venados FC

WDWLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W
15/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-5	3	6	L
09/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	8	5	W
01/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	12	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (54%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 54%, draw 23%, Venados FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 2.23 · Venados FC 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.