Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 03/10, 03:00
Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava
Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Jaiba Brava
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Tepatitlan FC1.11
Jaiba Brava1.2
1X2
Tepatitlan FC
Draw
Jaiba Brava
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Tepatitlan FC
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Jaiba Brava
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tepatitlan FC
3–1–2
Jaiba Brava
(6 last)
- Jaiba Brava2-0Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC3-1Jaiba Brava
- Tepatitlan FC1-0Jaiba Brava
- Jaiba Brava0-0Tepatitlan FC
- Jaiba Brava0-1Tepatitlan FC
- Jaiba Brava1-0Tepatitlan FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaiba Brava (rating 1402 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tepatitlan FC | Jaiba Brava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 3 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.6 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 3–1–2 Jaiba Brava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 24/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Jaiba Brava |
| 17/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Jaiba Brava |
| 10/05/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 19/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 24/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Jaiba Brava | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Club Atletico La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Universidad Guadalajara | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 17 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancun FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 14 |
| 8 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 11 |
| 13 | Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tepatitlan FC | Jaiba Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Venados FC | 0-5 L | 4-3 W |
| Dorados | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0-6 L | 3-0 W |
| Tlaxcala FC | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Oaxaca | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Correcaminos | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Jaiba Brava (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-5 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
Jaiba Brava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 13/09 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
3-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Jaiba Brava win (37%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 32%, draw 31%, Jaiba Brava 37%.
How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.11 · Jaiba Brava 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.