Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 10/10, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Atletico Morelia

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Atletico Morelia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Tepatitlan FC1.41

Atletico Morelia2.06

1X2

25% 23% 52%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Atletico Morelia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLW

Atletico Morelia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 3–3 Atletico Morelia (6 last)

Atletico Morelia3-2Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC3-2Atletico Morelia
Tepatitlan FC3-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-1Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia1-0Tepatitlan FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Morelia (rating 1406 vs 1558).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Atletico Morelia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.9	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.7	5.2 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.94

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:44

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.11 → 4.11	Pinn 4.11
X	4.28 → 4.28	Pinn 4.28
2	1.68 → 1.68	Pinn 1.68

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +29’	4.11	4.28	1.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 3–0–3 Atletico Morelia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-2 HT 1-2	Tepatitlan FC
04/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	3-2 HT 3-1	Atletico Morelia
01/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Morelia
18/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 2-1	Tepatitlan FC
04/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
03/11/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
6	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
7	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Atletico Morelia
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Venados FC	0-5 L	1-2 L
Dorados	1-4 L	1-0 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0-6 L	2-1 W
Oaxaca	0-1 L	4-1 W
Club Atletico La Paz	0-5 L	4-2 W
Correcaminos	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Morelia (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

LLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-5	12	6	L
04/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	6	8	L
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
08/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/07	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Atletico Morelia

WLWWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	16	7	L
15/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
02/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
26/07	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	4-2	0	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Atletico Morelia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Morelia win (52%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 25%, draw 23%, Atletico Morelia 52%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.41 · Atletico Morelia 2.06), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.