Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 10/10, 01:00

Prediction: Tapatio vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Tapatio · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Tapatio1.83

Club Atletico La Paz1.62

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Tapatio Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tapatio 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDLLW

Club Atletico La Paz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Tapatio 2–2–2 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz2-2Tapatio
Tapatio2-0Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz4-1Tapatio
Tapatio1-0Club Atletico La Paz
Tapatio0-2Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-2Tapatio

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tapatio	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.91

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:44

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.27 → 2.27	Pinn 2.27
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.70
2	2.81 → 2.81	Pinn 2.81

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +29’	2.27	3.70	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 2–2–2 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-2 HT 1-1	Tapatio
04/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	2-0 HT 2-0	Club Atletico La Paz
01/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	4-1 HT 2-0	Tapatio
15/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
02/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	0-2 HT 0-1	Club Atletico La Paz
07/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-2 HT 0-1	Tapatio

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Morelia	10	7	0	3	20	11	21
2	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
3	Universidad Guadalajara	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	21	15	17
6	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
7	Piratas	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
8	Cancun FC	10	4	2	4	18	15	14
9	Tapatio	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
10	Alacranes de Durango	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	17	14	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	10	3	2	5	18	22	11
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	8	18	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tapatio	Club Atletico La Paz
Universidad Guadalajara	1-3 L	2-2 D
Oaxaca	1-1 D	3-1 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	4-2 W	3-0 W
Correcaminos	3-2 W	3-1 W
Venados FC	2-3 L	1-2 L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Cancun FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tapatio

LDWLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
13/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	2	8	L
07/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
28/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
24/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
15/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
09/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	5	L
02/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/07	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	11	5	L

Club Atletico La Paz

LWWDWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tapatio win (42%). Probabilities: Tapatio 42%, draw 24%, Club Atletico La Paz 34%.

How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Tapatio 1.83 · Club Atletico La Paz 1.62), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.