Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 17/10, 05:00

Prediction: Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC

Team pages: Club Atletico La Paz · Tlaxcala FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Club Atletico La Paz2.36

Tlaxcala FC1.26

1X2

61% 21% 18%

Club Atletico La Paz Draw Tlaxcala FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico La Paz 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWWLW

Tlaxcala FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Club Atletico La Paz 4–2–0 Tlaxcala FC (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz2-0Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC3-3Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz4-4Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC0-2Club Atletico La Paz
Tlaxcala FC2-3Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-0Tlaxcala FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico La Paz 1589 · Tlaxcala FC 1511

	Club Atletico La Paz	Draw	Tlaxcala FC
Our model	61%	21%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico La Paz (rating 1589 vs 1511).
H2H favours Club Atletico La Paz: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico La Paz	Tlaxcala FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	5.9 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +45’	1.53	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +46’	1.52	4.46	4.91
01:16 +66’	1.53▲	4.53▲	5.00▲
00:22 +47’	1.53	4.51▼	4.99▼
10:16 +51’	1.51▼	4.66▲	5.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico La Paz 4–2–0 Tlaxcala FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-0 HT 1-0	Tlaxcala FC
28/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	3-3 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz
11/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	4-4 HT 2-1	Tlaxcala FC
28/07/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Club Atletico La Paz
17/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	2-3 HT 0-2	Club Atletico La Paz
27/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-0 HT 0-0	Tlaxcala FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
2	Club Atletico La Paz	12	7	2	3	28	15	23
3	Atletico Morelia	12	7	2	3	22	13	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	27	22	20
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	12	5	3	4	25	21	18
6	Cancun FC	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
7	Piratas	12	5	3	4	18	14	18
8	Alacranes de Durango	12	5	3	4	11	11	18
9	Correcaminos	12	4	4	4	20	20	16
10	Tlaxcala FC	12	4	3	5	23	25	15
11	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19	19	14
12	Dorados	12	3	4	5	21	23	13
13	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
14	Jaiba Brava	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
16	Tepatitlan FC	11	2	1	8	9	30	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico La Paz	Tlaxcala FC
Tapatio	4-2 W	0-4 L
Venados FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Oaxaca	3-1 W	0-2 L
Cancun FC	2-1 W	4-1 W
Piratas	2-0 W	4-2 W
Tepatitlan FC	5-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico La Paz

WWDWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	10	7	W
03/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
13/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
05/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
28/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-1	2	9	W
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W

Tlaxcala FC

LDLWDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
04/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
27/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
21/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
13/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
05/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	10	W
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico La Paz win (61%). Probabilities: Club Atletico La Paz 61%, draw 21%, Tlaxcala FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Club Atletico La Paz 2.36 · Tlaxcala FC 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico La Paz vs Tlaxcala FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.