Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 24/10, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Cancun FC

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Cancun FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Tepatitlan FC1.4

Cancun FC1.7

1X2

31% 26% 44%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Cancun FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDLL

Cancun FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLWDD

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 1–2–3 Cancun FC (6 last)

Cancun FC2-2Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC1-2Cancun FC
Tepatitlan FC1-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC2-0Tepatitlan FC
Cancun FC2-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC3-0Cancun FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cancun FC (rating 1431 vs 1532).
H2H favours Cancun FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Cancun FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.8	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 1.1	5.7 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.99

Under 31.81

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 16:49

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.09 → 3.76▲	Pinn 3.76
X	3.85 → 4.16▲	Pinn 4.16
2	2.02 → 1.77▼	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (5)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +12’	3.09	3.85	2.02
04:13 +9’	3.12▲	3.90▲	2.04▲
06:29 +50’	3.75▲	4.14▲	1.77▼
13:59 +42’	3.74▼	4.13▼	1.78▲
15:34 +74’	3.76▲	4.16▲	1.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 1–2–3 Cancun FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC
18/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Cancun FC
18/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Cancun FC
04/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Tepatitlan FC
20/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC
31/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	13	7	3	3	30	17	24
2	Universidad Guadalajara	12	7	3	2	28	17	24
3	Atletico Morelia	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	21	14	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	28	23	21
6	Alacranes de Durango	13	6	3	4	16	11	21
7	Cancun FC	13	5	4	4	22	18	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	26	23	18
9	Tapatio	13	5	2	6	23	25	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	23	24	16
11	Correcaminos	13	4	4	5	21	22	16
12	Tlaxcala FC	13	4	4	5	25	27	16
13	Jaiba Brava	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	16	20	14
15	Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10	23	13
16	Tepatitlan FC	13	2	1	10	10	37	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Cancun FC
Piratas	0-3 L	1-0 W
Tapatio	1-4 L	1-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-1 L	2-2 D
Venados FC	0-5 L	1-1 D
Dorados	1-4 L	1-1 D
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0-6 L	6-0 W
Tlaxcala FC	3-2 W	1-4 L
Oaxaca	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

LWLLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
14/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
10/10	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-1	3	6	W
19/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-5	12	6	L
04/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	1-4	6	8	L
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L

Cancun FC

WLWDDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	6	6	D
04/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Cancun FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cancun FC win (44%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 31%, draw 26%, Cancun FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Cancun FC?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.4 · Cancun FC 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Cancun FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.