Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 05/11, 00:00

Prediction: Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia

Team pages: Venados FC · Atletico Morelia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Venados FC1.7

Atletico Morelia1.37

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Venados FC Draw Atletico Morelia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Venados FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Morelia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Venados FC 3–1–2 Atletico Morelia (6 last)

Venados FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia2-1Venados FC
Venados FC2-2Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia1-0Venados FC
Venados FC2-1Atletico Morelia
Atletico Morelia3-4Venados FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Venados FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Venados FC	Atletico Morelia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	3.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.5	5.4 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.87

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.32
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +5’	2.30	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +8’	2.32	3.58	2.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 3–1–2 Atletico Morelia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Morelia
15/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC
05/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Morelia
03/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
14/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
29/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	3-4 HT 2-1	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	15	9	3	3	36	18	30
2	Universidad Guadalajara	15	9	3	3	34	20	30
3	Atletico Morelia	15	8	2	5	26	19	26
4	Piratas	15	7	4	4	27	15	25
5	Cancun FC	15	7	4	4	28	18	25
6	Venados FC	15	7	4	4	31	25	25
7	Alacranes de Durango	15	7	3	5	21	15	24
8	Tlaxcala FC	15	6	4	5	29	27	22
9	Oaxaca	15	7	1	7	15	25	22
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	15	5	3	7	26	26	18
11	Tapatio	15	5	3	7	25	28	18
12	Correcaminos	15	4	5	6	21	24	17
13	Dorados	15	4	4	7	23	32	16
14	Jaiba Brava	15	4	3	8	15	25	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	15	3	5	7	17	24	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	15	2	1	12	11	44	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Venados FC	Atletico Morelia
Alacranes de Durango	3-2 W	1-3 L
Universidad Guadalajara	1-1 D	2-0 W
Tepatitlan FC	5-0 W	1-1 D
Jaiba Brava	3-4 L	1-2 L
Tlaxcala FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Venados FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	3-2	5	10	W
18/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
11/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
03/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L

Atletico Morelia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
26/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
18/10	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
10/10	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
04/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
27/09	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
20/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/09	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
06/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Venados FC win (44%). Probabilities: Venados FC 44%, draw 26%, Atletico Morelia 30%.

How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Venados FC 1.7 · Atletico Morelia 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.