Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 30/10, 02:00

Prediction: Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Team pages: Oaxaca · Mineros de Zacatecas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Oaxaca1.38

Mineros de Zacatecas1.54

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Oaxaca Draw Mineros de Zacatecas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Oaxaca 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLWWW

Mineros de Zacatecas 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

Oaxaca 1–3–2 Mineros de Zacatecas (6 last)

Oaxaca2-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas2-2Oaxaca
Oaxaca0-1Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas3-0Oaxaca
Oaxaca1-1Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas1-1Oaxaca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oaxaca 1496 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1453

	Oaxaca	Draw	Mineros de Zacatecas
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oaxaca (rating 1496 vs 1453).
H2H favours Mineros de Zacatecas: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oaxaca	Mineros de Zacatecas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	4.8 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.59 ★
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +1’	2.80	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:50 +17’	2.70	3.59	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oaxaca 1–3–2 Mineros de Zacatecas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	2-0 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
24/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	2-2 HT 1-1	Oaxaca
18/01/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	0-1 HT 0-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
03/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	3-0 HT 0-0	Oaxaca
29/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Oaxaca	1-1 HT 1-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
12/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 HT 1-0	Oaxaca

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	14	8	3	3	33	18	27
2	Universidad Guadalajara	14	8	3	3	31	19	27
3	Atletico Morelia	14	8	2	4	25	16	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31	25	24
6	Cancun FC	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
7	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18	14	21
8	Tlaxcala FC	14	5	4	5	27	27	19
9	Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14	25	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21	24	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23	29	16
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15	23	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17	22	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	14	2	1	11	10	41	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oaxaca	Mineros de Zacatecas
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1 W	1-2 L
Universidad Guadalajara	2-1 W	0-2 L
Piratas	0-4 L	3-0 W
Club Atletico La Paz	1-3 L	0-3 L
Cancun FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Alacranes de Durango	1-0 W	2-4 L
Atletico Morelia	1-4 L	0-1 L
Tapatio	1-1 D	2-4 L
Jaiba Brava	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Oaxaca (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oaxaca

LDLWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
18/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	2	10	W
09/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
04/10	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
25/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
20/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-3	2	8	L
11/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
06/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
28/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Mineros de Zacatecas

LWLLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
17/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
11/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
04/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	6	L
25/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
19/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mineros de Zacatecas win (40%). Probabilities: Oaxaca 33%, draw 27%, Mineros de Zacatecas 40%.

How many goals are expected in Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Oaxaca 1.38 · Mineros de Zacatecas 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.