Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 31/10, 02:00

Prediction: Correcaminos vs Venados FC

Team pages: Correcaminos · Venados FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Correcaminos1.78

Venados FC1.33

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Correcaminos Draw Venados FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Correcaminos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWDLLL

Venados FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWDDW

Head-to-head

Correcaminos 2–1–3 Venados FC (6 last)

Venados FC0-1Correcaminos
Correcaminos3-6Venados FC
Correcaminos1-1Venados FC
Venados FC5-1Correcaminos
Correcaminos2-1Venados FC
Venados FC4-3Correcaminos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Correcaminos 1468 · Venados FC 1523

	Correcaminos	Draw	Venados FC
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Venados FC (rating 1468 vs 1523).
H2H favours Venados FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Correcaminos	Venados FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.9	5.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.05 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.88
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:05 +5’	1.95	3.80	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +11’	2.05	3.88	3.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Correcaminos 2–1–3 Venados FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Correcaminos
27/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	3-6 HT 1-3	Venados FC
21/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	1-1 HT 1-0	Venados FC
05/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	5-1 HT 3-1	Correcaminos
24/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Correcaminos	2-1 HT 2-0	Venados FC
23/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	4-3 HT 0-1	Correcaminos

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico La Paz	14	8	3	3	33	18	27
2	Universidad Guadalajara	14	8	3	3	31	19	27
3	Atletico Morelia	14	8	2	4	25	16	26
4	Piratas	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
5	Venados FC	14	7	3	4	31	25	24
6	Cancun FC	14	6	4	4	26	18	22
7	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18	14	21
8	Tlaxcala FC	14	5	4	5	27	27	19
9	Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14	25	19
10	Mineros de Zacatecas	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
12	Correcaminos	14	4	4	6	21	24	16
13	Dorados	14	4	4	6	23	29	16
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15	23	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17	22	14
16	Tepatitlan FC	14	2	1	11	10	41	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Correcaminos	Venados FC
Tlaxcala FC	0-2 L	1-3 L
Dorados	1-2 L	4-2 W
Jaiba Brava	1-0 W	3-4 L
Club Atletico La Paz	1-3 L	2-1 W
Cancun FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Piratas	1-4 L	1-2 L
Alacranes de Durango	0-0 D	3-2 W
Atletico Morelia	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Venados FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Correcaminos

WDLDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
17/10	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
09/10	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
03/10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	11	8	D
26/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
19/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
12/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	7	9	D
06/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-4	3	10	L
29/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
21/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	5	7	W

Venados FC

WLLWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	3-2	5	10	W
18/10	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
11/10	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
03/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Correcaminos vs Venados FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Correcaminos win (47%). Probabilities: Correcaminos 47%, draw 25%, Venados FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Correcaminos vs Venados FC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Correcaminos 1.78 · Venados FC 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Correcaminos vs Venados FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.