Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 04/09, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Dorados

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Dorados

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Tepatitlan FC1.39

Dorados1.25

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Dorados

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLLLWL

Dorados 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDDLL

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 3–2–1 Dorados (6 last)

Dorados0-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC3-0Dorados
Dorados1-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC1-1Dorados
Tepatitlan FC2-0Dorados
Dorados1-2Tepatitlan FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Dorados
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.7	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 03:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.98▲	Pinn 1.98
X	4.00 → 3.56▼	Pinn 3.56
2	4.58 → 3.55▼	Pinn 3.55

See the full journey (7)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:20 +2’	1.65	4.00	4.58
02:33 +1’	1.86▲	3.71▼	3.81▼
06:08	1.90▲	3.68▼	3.68▼
08:38 +4’	1.90	3.63▼	3.75▲
09:41	1.92▲	3.61▼	3.70▼
12:22 +16’	1.96▲	3.56▼	3.60▼
03:15	1.98▲	3.56	3.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 3–2–1 Dorados

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	0-0 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
23/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Dorados
16/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	1-0 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
28/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Dorados
12/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Dorados
10/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Dorados	1-2 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
2	Atletico Morelia	6	4	0	2	12	8	12
3	Mineros de Zacatecas	6	3	2	1	17	11	11
4	Correcaminos	6	3	2	1	14	9	11
5	Tapatio	6	3	2	1	11	8	11
6	Club Atletico La Paz	6	3	1	2	12	7	10
7	Venados FC	6	3	1	2	13	13	10
8	Piratas	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
9	Jaiba Brava	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
10	Oaxaca	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
11	Alacranes de Durango	6	2	1	3	3	7	7
12	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6	1	3	2	9	7	6
13	Cancun FC	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
14	Dorados	5	1	2	2	8	9	5
15	Tlaxcala FC	6	1	1	4	10	15	4
16	Tepatitlan FC	6	1	0	5	4	18	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Dorados
Tlaxcala FC	3-2 W	2-2 D
Oaxaca	0-1 L	2-0 W
Correcaminos	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dorados (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

DWWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	2	5	L
21/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
14/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
08/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/07	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	8	8	W
17/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	8	D

Dorados

DLWLWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	2-4	2	2	L
16/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	4	5	D
07/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
31/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	0	5	W
18/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
04/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	3	0	L
29/03	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
22/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	10	L
15/03	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Dorados?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tepatitlan FC win (39%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 39%, draw 29%, Dorados 32%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Dorados?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.39 · Dorados 1.25), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Dorados?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.