Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 08:30

Prediction: Fencibles United vs Auckland City

Team pages: Fencibles United · Auckland City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Fencibles United1.69

Auckland City2.09

1X2

31% 22% 47%

Fencibles United Draw Auckland City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fencibles United 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Auckland City 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fencibles United 1–1–2 Auckland City (4 last)

Fencibles United3-2Auckland City
Auckland City4-1Fencibles United
Auckland City1-1Fencibles United
Fencibles United1-2Auckland City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fencibles United 1613 · Auckland City 1566

	Fencibles United	Draw	Auckland City
Our model	31%	23%	47%
Market	31%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1613 vs 1566).
H2H favours Auckland City: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fencibles United	Auckland City
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 1.1	3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	3.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +2’	2.88	4.20	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fencibles United 1–1–2 Auckland City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 New Zealand Cup	Fencibles United	3-2 HT 2-0	Auckland City
25/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	4-1 HT 3-0	Fencibles United
02/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	1-1 HT 0-1	Fencibles United
26/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	1-2 HT 0-0	Auckland City

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	20	12	3	5	47	19	39
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	18	10	4	4	33	26	34
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	18	3	3	12	15	43	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fencibles United	Auckland City
Auckland FC II	2-1 W	2-0 W
East Coast Bays	3-2 W	3-4 L
Bay Olympic	2-1 W	5-1 W
Birkenhead United	3-1 W	2-3 L
Tauranga City AFC	7-1 W	3-2 W
Manukau United	2-1 W	5-0 W
Western Springs AFC	6-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fencibles United (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fencibles United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Auckland City New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
18/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
11/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
04/07	South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
20/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
13/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
06/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	4-1	7-1	8	4	W
29/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
23/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	3-0	6-0	7	5	W

Auckland City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	4-1	5-1	5	2	W
25/07	Fencibles United New Zealand Cup	0-2	2-3	6	2	L
22/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-3	3-4	8	4	L
18/07	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	15	2	W
11/07	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	5-0	8	1	W
04/07	Takapuna New Zealand Cup	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
01/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
20/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	2-3	3	4	L
13/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fencibles United vs Auckland City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland City win (47%). Probabilities: Fencibles United 31%, draw 22%, Auckland City 47%.

How many goals are expected in Fencibles United vs Auckland City?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Fencibles United 1.69 · Auckland City 2.09), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fencibles United vs Auckland City?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.