Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 08:30

Prediction: Manukau United vs Auckland United FC

Team pages: Manukau United · Auckland United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Manukau United0.82

Auckland United FC2.82

1X2

7% 12% 82%

Manukau United Draw Auckland United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Manukau United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Auckland United FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Manukau United 0–1–5 Auckland United FC (6 last)

Auckland United FC7-0Manukau United
Auckland United FC3-0Manukau United
Manukau United1-4Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC4-1Manukau United
Manukau United0-4Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC2-2Manukau United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manukau United 1381 · Auckland United FC 1539

	Manukau United	Draw	Auckland United FC
Our model	8%	15%	78%
Market	6%	9%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1381 vs 1539).
H2H favours Auckland United FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manukau United	Auckland United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2	2.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

115.00

X10.00

21.08

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.90

2 (-3)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 17.00▲	Bet365 17.00
X	10.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	1.08 → 1.10▲	Bet365 1.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +20’	15.00	10.00	1.08
18:43 +4’	17.00▲	9.00▼	1.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Manukau United 0–1–5 Auckland United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	7-0 HT 3-0	Manukau United
01/07/23 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Manukau United
10/04/23 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	1-4 HT 0-1	Auckland United FC
11/06/22 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Manukau United
02/04/22 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-4 HT 0-1	Auckland United FC
05/04/21 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Manukau United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	20	12	3	5	47	19	39
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	18	10	4	4	33	26	34
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	18	3	3	12	15	43	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manukau United	Auckland United FC
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-7 L	1-0 W
Auckland City	0-5 L	1-1 D
Auckland FC II	2-3 L	0-2 L
East Coast Bays	0-2 L	3-0 W
Bay Olympic	0-1 L	3-0 W
Melville United	0-2 L	3-0 W
Western Springs AFC	0-5 L	0-0 D
Birkenhead United	1-5 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Manukau United

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-4	0-7	0	1	L
11/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
27/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	1	L
20/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
16/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
09/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	3	2	L
02/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-5	1	2	L

Auckland United FC

WWLDWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
18/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
04/07	Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup	0-0	1-1	14	8	D
27/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	9	0	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
28/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
23/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
16/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	13	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manukau United vs Auckland United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland United FC win (82%). Probabilities: Manukau United 7%, draw 12%, Auckland United FC 82%.

How many goals are expected in Manukau United vs Auckland United FC?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Manukau United 0.82 · Auckland United FC 2.82), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Manukau United vs Auckland United FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.