Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 07:30

Prediction: Western Springs AFC vs Birkenhead United

Team pages: Western Springs AFC · Birkenhead United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Western Springs AFC0.94

Birkenhead United2.49

1X2

12% 17% 71%

Western Springs AFC Draw Birkenhead United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Western Springs AFC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Birkenhead United 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Western Springs AFC 1–1–4 Birkenhead United (6 last)

Birkenhead United3-0Western Springs AFC
Birkenhead United3-1Western Springs AFC
Birkenhead United2-3Western Springs AFC
Western Springs AFC2-3Birkenhead United
Western Springs AFC1-3Birkenhead United
Western Springs AFC2-2Birkenhead United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Western Springs AFC 1477 · Birkenhead United 1614

	Western Springs AFC	Draw	Birkenhead United
Our model	12%	18%	70%
Market	13%	16%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1477 vs 1614).
H2H favours Birkenhead United: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Western Springs AFC	Birkenhead United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	3.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	5.3 / 9.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.75

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)2.00

2 (-1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00
X	7.00 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75
2	1.17 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +19’	9.00	7.00	1.17
17:15 +6’	7.00▼	5.75▼	1.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Springs AFC 1–1–4 Birkenhead United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	3-0 HT 1-0	Western Springs AFC
07/12/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Birkenhead United	3-1 HT 2-0	Western Springs AFC
19/07/25 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	2-3 HT 1-1	Western Springs AFC
21/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Western Springs AFC	2-3 HT 1-2	Birkenhead United
12/10/24 New Zealand Football Championship	Western Springs AFC	1-3 HT 0-0	Birkenhead United
06/07/24 New Zealand Cup	Western Springs AFC	2-2 HT 1-0	Birkenhead United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	20	12	3	5	47	19	39
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	18	10	4	4	33	26	34
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	18	3	3	12	15	43	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Western Springs AFC	Birkenhead United
Auckland United FC	0-0 D	4-0 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-1 L	1-1 D
Auckland City	0-3 L	3-2 W
Auckland FC II	1-0 W	2-0 W
East Coast Bays	2-2 D	3-1 W
Bay Olympic	3-0 W	6-2 W
Fencibles United	0-6 L	1-3 L
Melville United	3-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Western Springs AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
19/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	2-2	9	4	D
29/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
23/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-3	0-6	3	5	L
16/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-3	2-4	8	3	L
09/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	5-0	1	2	W
02/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-1	1	2	W

Birkenhead United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
11/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
13/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-3	10	4	L
06/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-0	11	8	W
01/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup	3-1	6-2	10	7	W
28/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
23/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	3-0	6-0	13	2	W
16/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Western Springs AFC vs Birkenhead United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birkenhead United win (71%). Probabilities: Western Springs AFC 12%, draw 17%, Birkenhead United 71%.

How many goals are expected in Western Springs AFC vs Birkenhead United?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Western Springs AFC 0.94 · Birkenhead United 2.49), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Western Springs AFC vs Birkenhead United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.