Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 08:30

Prediction: East Coast Bays vs Melville United

Team pages: East Coast Bays · Melville United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

East Coast Bays2.33

Melville United0.93

1X2

69% 18% 13%

East Coast Bays Draw Melville United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

East Coast Bays 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Melville United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

East Coast Bays 2–2 Melville United (4 last)

Melville United0-1East Coast Bays
Melville United2-0East Coast Bays
East Coast Bays2-0Melville United
East Coast Bays2-8Melville United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · East Coast Bays 1518 · Melville United 1403

	East Coast Bays	Draw	Melville United
Our model	68%	20%	13%
Market	69%	17%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours East Coast Bays (rating 1518 vs 1403).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	East Coast Bays	Melville United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	0.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.25

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +25’	1.30	5.25	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · East Coast Bays 2–0–2 Melville United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	0-1 HT 0-0	East Coast Bays
24/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	2-0 HT 2-0	East Coast Bays
25/05/24 New Zealand Northern League	East Coast Bays	2-0 HT 1-0	Melville United
16/06/19 New Zealand Cup	East Coast Bays	2-8 HT 2-2	Melville United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	20	12	3	5	47	19	39
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	18	10	4	4	33	26	34
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	18	3	3	12	15	43	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	East Coast Bays	Melville United
Auckland City	4-3 W	0-4 L
Bay Olympic	2-2 D	1-1 D
Fencibles United	2-3 L	2-3 L
Tauranga City AFC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Manukau United	2-0 W	2-0 W
Birkenhead United	1-3 L	1-4 L
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: East Coast Bays (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

East Coast Bays

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-2	4-3	3	4	W
18/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	3	L
27/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
20/06	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
13/06	Auckland City New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
01/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup	–	0-0	–	–	D
28/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
23/05	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L

Melville United

WLLDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	1-4	3	3	L
11/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
27/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
20/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
06/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
01/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
28/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/05	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-4	4	4	L
16/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in East Coast Bays vs Melville United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a East Coast Bays win (69%). Probabilities: East Coast Bays 69%, draw 18%, Melville United 13%.

How many goals are expected in East Coast Bays vs Melville United?

The model expects 3.25 goals (East Coast Bays 2.33 · Melville United 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in East Coast Bays vs Melville United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.