Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 05:00
Prediction: Bay Olympic vs Auckland FC II
Team pages: Bay Olympic · Auckland FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Bay Olympic1.2
Auckland FC II1.81
1X2
Bay Olympic
Draw
Auckland FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bay Olympic
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Auckland FC II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay Olympic
0–1–2
Auckland FC II
(3 last)
- Auckland FC II4-1Bay Olympic
- Bay Olympic2-2Auckland FC II
- Auckland FC II2-1Bay Olympic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay Olympic 1432 · Auckland FC II 1503
| Bay Olympic | Draw | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland FC II (rating 1432 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Auckland FC II: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay Olympic | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay Olympic 0–1–2 Auckland FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Auckland FC II |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 47 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 19 | 39 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 34 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 27 | 34 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 34 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 12 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 43 | 12 |
| 11 | Melville United | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 58 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay Olympic | Auckland FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland City | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Fencibles United | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Birkenhead United | 2-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Western Springs AFC | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland FC II (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | South Melbourne OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay Olympic vs Auckland FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland FC II win (51%). Probabilities: Bay Olympic 25%, draw 24%, Auckland FC II 51%.
How many goals are expected in Bay Olympic vs Auckland FC II?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Bay Olympic 1.2 · Auckland FC II 1.81), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay Olympic vs Auckland FC II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.