Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/08, 05:00

Prediction: Tauranga City AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Team pages: Tauranga City AFC · Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Tauranga City AFC0.65

Eastern Suburbs Auckland2.21

1X2

9% 18% 73%

Tauranga City AFC Draw Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Tauranga City AFC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Eastern Suburbs Auckland 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tauranga City AFC 0–6 Eastern Suburbs Auckland (6 last)

Eastern Suburbs Auckland3-0Tauranga City AFC
Eastern Suburbs Auckland4-1Tauranga City AFC
Eastern Suburbs Auckland5-2Tauranga City AFC
Tauranga City AFC1-3Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Tauranga City AFC1-5Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Eastern Suburbs Auckland4-3Tauranga City AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tauranga City AFC 1418 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1552

	Tauranga City AFC	Draw	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Our model	9%	19%	72%
Market	10%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland (rating 1418 vs 1552).
H2H favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tauranga City AFC	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	1.6 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	3.2 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.50

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	1.22 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +3’	9.00	5.50	1.22
16:06 +9’	7.00▼	5.00▼	1.28▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga City AFC 0–0–6 Eastern Suburbs Auckland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	3-0 HT 1-0	Tauranga City AFC
21/06/25 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	4-1 HT 0-0	Tauranga City AFC
14/06/25 New Zealand Cup	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	5-2 HT 4-1	Tauranga City AFC
12/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	1-3 HT 0-2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
10/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	1-5 HT 1-3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
06/04/24 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	4-3 HT 3-0	Tauranga City AFC

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	17	15	2	0	45	9	47
2	Auckland City	20	12	3	5	47	19	39
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	17	10	4	3	27	6	34
4	Fencibles United	17	11	1	5	47	27	34
5	East Coast Bays	18	10	4	4	33	26	34
6	Auckland United FC	17	8	5	4	30	16	29
7	Auckland FC II	18	6	3	9	28	32	21
8	Western Springs AFC	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
9	Tauranga City AFC	17	3	3	11	22	39	12
10	Bay Olympic	18	3	3	12	15	43	12
11	Melville United	17	3	2	12	18	42	11
12	Manukau United	17	1	1	15	11	58	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tauranga City AFC	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Auckland City	2-3 L	0-0 D
Auckland FC II	1-2 L	1-0 W
East Coast Bays	1-2 L	0-1 L
Bay Olympic	1-2 L	2-0 W
Melville United	1-0 W	4-0 W
Manukau United	2-3 L	7-0 W
Western Springs AFC	4-2 W	1-0 W
Birkenhead United	0-2 L	1-1 D
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs Auckland (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tauranga City AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	2	2	L
11/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
20/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-7	1	4	L
28/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	10	8	W
23/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
16/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
09/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
02/05	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L

Eastern Suburbs Auckland

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	4-0	7-0	17	1	W
11/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
06/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	4-0	11	3	W
01/06	Melville United New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
30/05	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
16/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
09/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tauranga City AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (73%). Probabilities: Tauranga City AFC 9%, draw 18%, Eastern Suburbs Auckland 73%.

How many goals are expected in Tauranga City AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Tauranga City AFC 0.65 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2.21), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tauranga City AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.