Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 12/07, 21:30
Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs CD Espuce (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.21Total
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)3.11
CD Espuce (W)1.11
1X2
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Draw
CD Espuce (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
CD Espuce (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
4–2
CD Espuce (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1553 · CD Espuce (W) 1428
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Draw | CD Espuce (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 84% | 11% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) (rating 1553 vs 1428).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W): 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | CD Espuce (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 14/57/29% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.6 | 0.9 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.6 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 4–0–2 CD Espuce (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 24/05/25 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 1-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 17/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | CD Espuce (W) |
| 28/06/24 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 15/05/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CD Espuce (W) |
| 13/08/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 4-2 HT 2-1 | CD Espuce (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 37 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 29 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 13 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | Quito FC (W) | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 4 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | CD Espuce (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Macara (W) | 6-0 W | 2-3 L |
| EL Nacional (W) | 8-0 W | 3-0 W |
| LDU Quito (W) | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 5-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 02/07 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
CD Espuce (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/06 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs CD Espuce (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 81%, draw 13%, CD Espuce (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs CD Espuce (W)?
The model expects 4.21 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 3.11 · CD Espuce (W) 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs CD Espuce (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.