Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: Macara (W) vs Quito FC (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
Macara (W)2.38
Quito FC (W)1.39
1X2
Macara (W)
Draw
Quito FC (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Macara (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Quito FC (W)
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara (W)
2–1–0
Quito FC (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara (W) 1445 · Quito FC (W) 1402
| Macara (W) | Draw | Quito FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (W) (rating 1445 vs 1402).
- H2H favours Macara (W): 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara (W) | Quito FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.7 | 0.9 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/0/67% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara (W) 2–1–0 Quito FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Quito FC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Macara (W) |
| 08/06/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Quito FC (W) |
| 14/04/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Quito FC (W) | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Macara (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 37 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 29 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 13 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | Quito FC (W) | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 4 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara (W) | Quito FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Emelec (W) | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-6 L | 1-3 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| LDU Quito (W) | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 2-3 L | 1-6 L |
| CD Espuce (W) | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
Quito FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara (W) vs Quito FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Macara (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Macara (W) 59%, draw 21%, Quito FC (W) 21%.
How many goals are expected in Macara (W) vs Quito FC (W)?
The model expects 3.77 goals (Macara (W) 2.38 · Quito FC (W) 1.39), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara (W) vs Quito FC (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.