Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 12/07, 19:00
Prediction: Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Emelec (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.26Total
Deportivo Ibarra (W)3.13
Emelec (W)1.13
1X2
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
Draw
Emelec (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Emelec (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
1–2–0
Emelec (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1511 · Emelec (W) 1430
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Draw | Emelec (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Ibarra (W) (rating 1511 vs 1430).
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Emelec (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.7 | 0.7 / 5.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0 / 2.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/29/29% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1–2–0 Emelec (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Emelec (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 16/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Emelec (W) | 1-1 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 04/05/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 4-1 | Emelec (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 37 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 29 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 13 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | Quito FC (W) | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 4 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Emelec (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle (W) | 0-2 L | 0-13 L |
| LDU Quito (W) | 1-6 L | 0-12 L |
| Quito FC (W) | 6-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-5 L | 0-4 L |
| Macara (W) | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Ibarra (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
Emelec (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-12 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-5 | 0-13 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 01/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-10 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Emelec (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Ibarra (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Deportivo Ibarra (W) 79%, draw 13%, Emelec (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Emelec (W)?
The model expects 4.26 goals (Deportivo Ibarra (W) 3.13 · Emelec (W) 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Emelec (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.