Football · England National League South · 14/08, 21:00
Prediction: Dag & Red vs Farnham
Team pages: Dag & Red · Farnham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Dag & Red1.83
Farnham1.01
1X2
Dag & Red
Draw
Farnham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dag & Red
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Farnham
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1529 · Farnham 1520
| Dag & Red | Draw | Farnham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dag & Red | Farnham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 44/22/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.1 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salisbury FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Weston Super Mare | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Truro City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Farnborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | AFC Totton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Dag & Red | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Horsham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Torquay | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Slough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Maidstone Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Farnham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Dover | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Maidenhead Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Chesham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Walton & Hersham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Braintree Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dag & Red
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | South Shields Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Boreham Wood UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Crystal Palace U21 UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Hashtag United UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Hitchin UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Newmarket Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | AFC Hornchurch UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Slough England National League South |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Farnham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/07 | Yeovil UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Rochdale UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | Wycombe Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Cobham Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Badshot Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Ashford Town (Middx) UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Farnham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (56%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 56%, draw 24%, Farnham 20%.
How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Farnham?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Dag & Red 1.83 · Farnham 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Farnham?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.