Football · England National League South · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Tonbridge Angels vs Truro City
Team pages: Tonbridge Angels · Truro City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Tonbridge Angels1.14
Truro City1.36
1X2
Tonbridge Angels
Draw
Truro City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tonbridge Angels
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Truro City
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tonbridge Angels
2–2
Truro City
(4 last)
- Tonbridge Angels0-1Truro City
- Truro City2-1Tonbridge Angels
- Tonbridge Angels2-1Truro City
- Truro City1-2Tonbridge Angels
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tonbridge Angels 1525 · Truro City 1572
| Tonbridge Angels | Draw | Truro City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1525 vs 1572).
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tonbridge Angels | Truro City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tonbridge Angels 2–0–2 Truro City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/25 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Truro City |
| 26/10/24 England National League South | Truro City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 23/03/24 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Truro City |
| 28/10/23 England National League South | Truro City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Tonbridge Angels |
Standings · England National League South
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dag & Red | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Weston Super Mare | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | AFC Totton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Horsham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Torquay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Maidstone Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Hemel Hempstead | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Maidenhead Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Dover | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 20 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Slough | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tonbridge Angels
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Dover England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Torquay England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Wingate & Finchley Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Eastbourne Borough UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | Sittingbourne UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Cray Wanderers Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Sutton Utd UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Biggleswade FC UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Torquay England National League South |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Truro City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Southampton U21 England National League Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Plymouth Parkway Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Plymouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Exmouth Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Falmouth Town Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Carlisle England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tonbridge Angels vs Truro City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Truro City win (41%). Probabilities: Tonbridge Angels 31%, draw 28%, Truro City 41%.
How many goals are expected in Tonbridge Angels vs Truro City?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Tonbridge Angels 1.14 · Truro City 1.36), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Truro City?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.