Football · England National League South · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Salisbury FC vs Hemel Hempstead
Team pages: Salisbury FC · Hemel Hempstead
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Salisbury FC1.27
Hemel Hempstead1.4
1X2
Salisbury FC
Draw
Hemel Hempstead
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Salisbury FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Hemel Hempstead
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Salisbury FC
2–2–0
Hemel Hempstead
(4 last)
- Hemel Hempstead1-1Salisbury FC
- Salisbury FC1-0Hemel Hempstead
- Salisbury FC5-0Hemel Hempstead
- Hemel Hempstead2-2Salisbury FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Salisbury FC 1526 · Hemel Hempstead 1483
| Salisbury FC | Draw | Hemel Hempstead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salisbury FC (rating 1526 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Salisbury FC: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Salisbury FC | Hemel Hempstead | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 1.4 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Salisbury FC 2–2–0 Hemel Hempstead
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Salisbury FC |
| 06/12/25 England National League South | Salisbury FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 30/11/24 England National League South | Salisbury FC | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 10/08/24 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Salisbury FC |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dag & Red | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Weston Super Mare | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | AFC Totton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Horsham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Torquay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Maidstone Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Hemel Hempstead | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Maidenhead Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Dover | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 20 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Slough | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Salisbury FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Horsham England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 08/08 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Havant and W UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Frome Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Wimborne Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Bristol Rovers Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Horsham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Hemel Hempstead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | St Albans UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Kettering Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Hendon Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Wealdstone UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Oxford City Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Barnet Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/07 | QPR U23 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Salisbury FC vs Hemel Hempstead?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hemel Hempstead win (39%). Probabilities: Salisbury FC 33%, draw 28%, Hemel Hempstead 39%.
How many goals are expected in Salisbury FC vs Hemel Hempstead?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Salisbury FC 1.27 · Hemel Hempstead 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Salisbury FC vs Hemel Hempstead?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.