Football · England National League South · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd
Team pages: Dorking Wanderers · Maidstone Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Dorking Wanderers1.58
Maidstone Utd1.23
1X2
Dorking Wanderers
Draw
Maidstone Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dorking Wanderers
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Maidstone Utd
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dorking Wanderers
3–3–0
Maidstone Utd
(6 last)
- Maidstone Utd1-1Dorking Wanderers
- Dorking Wanderers3-1Maidstone Utd
- Maidstone Utd1-1Dorking Wanderers
- Dorking Wanderers1-1Maidstone Utd
- Dorking Wanderers3-2Maidstone Utd
- Maidstone Utd2-4Dorking Wanderers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dorking Wanderers 1503 · Maidstone Utd 1605
| Dorking Wanderers | Draw | Maidstone Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maidstone Utd (rating 1503 vs 1605).
- H2H favours Dorking Wanderers: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dorking Wanderers | Maidstone Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 3.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.7 | 3.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 1.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorking Wanderers 3–3–0 Maidstone Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England National League South | Maidstone Utd | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dorking Wanderers |
| 22/11/25 England National League South | Dorking Wanderers | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Maidstone Utd |
| 11/03/25 England National League South | Maidstone Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Dorking Wanderers |
| 05/11/24 England National League South | Dorking Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Maidstone Utd |
| 13/12/22 England National League | Dorking Wanderers | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Maidstone Utd |
| 16/08/22 England National League | Maidstone Utd | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Dorking Wanderers |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dag & Red | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Weston Super Mare | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | AFC Totton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Horsham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Torquay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Maidstone Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Hemel Hempstead | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Maidenhead Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Dover | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 20 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Slough | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dorking Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Dag & Red England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/08 | Bracknell Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Dulwich UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Lewes UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/07 | Chatham Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Jersey Bulls Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Leatherhead UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Bognor Regis Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Maidstone Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Folkestone Invicta England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Chatham Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Brentwood Town UK Friendlies |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Ashford Utd UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Ramsgate UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Welling UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Bearsted FC Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Whitstable Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorking Wanderers win (45%). Probabilities: Dorking Wanderers 45%, draw 27%, Maidstone Utd 29%.
How many goals are expected in Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Dorking Wanderers 1.58 · Maidstone Utd 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Maidstone Utd?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.