Football · England National League South · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs Dover
Team pages: Weston Super Mare · Dover
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Weston Super Mare1.88
Dover0.84
1X2
Weston Super Mare
Draw
Dover
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Weston Super Mare
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Dover
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Weston Super Mare
2–1–1
Dover
(4 last)
- Dover1-1Weston Super Mare
- Weston Super Mare1-2Dover
- Weston Super Mare1-0Dover
- Dover0-1Weston Super Mare
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1507 · Dover 1512
| Weston Super Mare | Draw | Dover | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 2-1-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Weston Super Mare | Dover | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 4.3 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Weston Super Mare 2–1–1 Dover
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England National League South | Dover | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Weston Super Mare |
| 22/11/25 England National League South | Weston Super Mare | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Dover |
| 09/03/24 England National League South | Weston Super Mare | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dover |
| 25/11/23 England National League South | Dover | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Weston Super Mare |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dag & Red | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Weston Super Mare | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | AFC Totton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Horsham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Torquay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Maidstone Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Hemel Hempstead | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Maidenhead Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Dover | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Farnham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 20 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Slough | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Weston Super Mare
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Torquay England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 15/08 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Chesham England National League South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/07 | Gloucester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Taunton Town UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Torquay UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | Clevedon Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/07 | Bristol Rovers UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Dover
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Slough England National League South |
3-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Carshalton Ath UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 28/07 | Herne Bay Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Burgess Hill Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Deal Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Littlehampton Town Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Gillingham Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Cray Wanderers Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs Dover?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (62%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 62%, draw 23%, Dover 16%.
How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs Dover?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.88 · Dover 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs Dover?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.