Football · England National League North · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Chester vs Spalding United
Team pages: Chester · Spalding United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Chester1.49
Spalding United0.85
1X2
Chester
Draw
Spalding United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chester
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Spalding United
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chester 1585 · Spalding United 1527
| Chester | Draw | Spalding United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chester (rating 1585 vs 1527).
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chester | Spalding United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 43/43/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.6 | 3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 5.6 / 0 |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | South Shields | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Oxford City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Hereford FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Worksop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Buxton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Kings Lynn Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brackley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Spennymoor Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Chorley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Bedford Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Darlington 1883 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Southport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Hednesford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 | Marine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Chorley England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/07 | Nantwich Town Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/07 | Hyde Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Stoke U21 UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Vauxhall Motors Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Spalding United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Chelmsford Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Bishop's Stortford Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/05 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chester vs Spalding United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (52%). Probabilities: Chester 52%, draw 27%, Spalding United 21%.
How many goals are expected in Chester vs Spalding United?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Chester 1.49 · Spalding United 0.85), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chester vs Spalding United?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.