Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Chester vs Marine

Team pages: Chester · Marine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Chester1.63

Marine0.88

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Chester Draw Marine

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chester 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLLWWL

Marine 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Chester 3–1–2 Marine (6 last)

Marine2-1Chester
Chester1-1Marine
Chester2-1Marine
Marine2-3Chester
Chester0-1Marine
Marine0-4Chester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chester 1491 · Marine 1557

	Chester	Draw	Marine
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marine (rating 1491 vs 1557).
H2H favours Chester: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chester	Marine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +1’	1.61	3.70	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chester 3–1–2 Marine

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/01/26 England National League North	Marine	2-1 HT 0-0	Chester
04/11/25 England National League North	Chester	1-1 HT 0-1	Marine
21/04/25 England National League North	Chester	2-1 HT 1-0	Marine
26/12/24 England National League North	Marine	2-3 HT 0-2	Chester
24/10/20 England FA Cup Qualification	Chester	0-1 HT 0-0	Marine
05/09/20 Club Friendly List	Marine	0-4 HT 0-2	Chester

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chester	Marine
South Shields	1-3 L	1-2 L
Worksop	4-1 W	0-1 L
Merthyr Town	0-1 L	2-1 W
Spalding United	1-0 W	1-0 W
Darlington 1883	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Marine (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chester

WWDLDLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	South Shields England National League North	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
10/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
26/09	Worksop England National League North	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
12/09	Buxton England National League North	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Marine

LWWLLLWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Oxford City England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
10/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
12/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
08/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	Harborough Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	4-1	2	3	W
18/08	Chorley England National League North	0-2	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chester vs Marine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (55%). Probabilities: Chester 55%, draw 25%, Marine 20%.

How many goals are expected in Chester vs Marine?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Chester 1.63 · Marine 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chester vs Marine?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.