Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chester vs Hednesford

Team pages: Chester · Hednesford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Chester1.65

Hednesford0.97

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Chester Draw Hednesford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chester 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLWWLW

Hednesford 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Chester 2–1–0 Hednesford (3 last)

Chester2-1Hednesford
Hednesford0-0Chester
Hednesford1-2Chester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chester 1504 · Hednesford 1528

	Chester	Draw	Hednesford
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chester: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chester	Hednesford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:35 +9’	1.67	3.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chester 2–1–0 Hednesford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/12/19 England FA Trophy	Chester	2-1 HT 2-0	Hednesford
14/12/19 England FA Trophy	Hednesford	0-0 HT 0-0	Chester
21/07/15 Club Friendly List	Hednesford	1-2 HT 1-1	Chester

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chester	Hednesford
South Shields	1-3 L	0-1 L
Bedford Town	1-0 W	0-1 L
Hebburn Town	1-1 D	1-2 L
Hereford FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Spalding United	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hednesford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chester

WDLDLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
24/10	South Shields England National League North	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
10/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
26/09	Worksop England National League North	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
12/09	Buxton England National League North	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Hednesford

WDLWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
24/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/10	Brackley England National League North	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
10/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
12/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
08/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chester vs Hednesford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (53%). Probabilities: Chester 53%, draw 25%, Hednesford 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chester vs Hednesford?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Chester 1.65 · Hednesford 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chester vs Hednesford?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.