Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Southport vs AFC Telford

Team pages: Southport · AFC Telford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Southport1.17

AFC Telford1.45

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Southport Draw AFC Telford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Southport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDLLD

AFC Telford 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Southport 2–4–0 AFC Telford (6 last)

Southport2-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford2-2Southport
AFC Telford1-1Southport
Southport0-0AFC Telford
Southport1-1AFC Telford
AFC Telford0-3Southport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southport 1443 · AFC Telford 1488

	Southport	Draw	AFC Telford
Our model	29%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Telford (rating 1443 vs 1488).
H2H favours Southport: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southport	AFC Telford
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:21 +11’	2.90	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 2–4–0 AFC Telford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League North	Southport	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
06/12/25 England National League North	AFC Telford	2-2 HT 1-0	Southport
28/01/23 England National League North	AFC Telford	1-1 HT 1-0	Southport
27/08/22 England National League North	Southport	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Telford
02/05/22 England National League North	Southport	1-1 HT 1-1	AFC Telford
08/02/22 England National League North	AFC Telford	0-3 HT 0-1	Southport

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southport	AFC Telford
Kings Lynn Town	0-0 D	0-5 L
Harborough Town	0-1 L	0-0 D
Morecambe	2-1 W	1-2 L
Hereford FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Scarborough Athletic	1-5 L	1-0 W
Bedford Town	4-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southport

WLLLWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
10/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W

AFC Telford

LLWWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
17/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southport vs AFC Telford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Telford win (43%). Probabilities: Southport 30%, draw 27%, AFC Telford 43%.

How many goals are expected in Southport vs AFC Telford?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Southport 1.17 · AFC Telford 1.45), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Southport vs AFC Telford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.