Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Morecambe vs Scarborough Athletic

Team pages: Morecambe · Scarborough Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Morecambe1.62

Scarborough Athletic1.11

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Morecambe Draw Scarborough Athletic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Morecambe 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Scarborough Athletic 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Morecambe 1550 · Scarborough Athletic 1487

	Morecambe	Draw	Scarborough Athletic
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Morecambe (rating 1550 vs 1487).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Morecambe	Scarborough Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +32’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Morecambe	Scarborough Athletic
Merthyr Town	3-1 W	0-0 D
Brackley	3-0 W	1-1 D
Southport	1-2 L	5-1 W
AFC Telford	2-1 W	0-1 L
Radcliffe FC	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Morecambe (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Morecambe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
24/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
10/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/08	AFC Telford England National League North	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	8	L

Scarborough Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	12	7	L
17/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
10/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
26/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
31/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Southport England National League North	3-0	5-1	5	1	W
22/08	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Morecambe vs Scarborough Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Morecambe win (49%). Probabilities: Morecambe 49%, draw 26%, Scarborough Athletic 25%.

How many goals are expected in Morecambe vs Scarborough Athletic?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Morecambe 1.62 · Scarborough Athletic 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Scarborough Athletic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.