Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Radcliffe FC vs Merthyr Town

Team pages: Radcliffe FC · Merthyr Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Radcliffe FC1.48

Merthyr Town1.41

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Radcliffe FC Draw Merthyr Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Radcliffe FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Merthyr Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Radcliffe FC 1–1 Merthyr Town (2 last)

Radcliffe FC1-3Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town0-5Radcliffe FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Radcliffe FC 1467 · Merthyr Town 1474

	Radcliffe FC	Draw	Merthyr Town
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Radcliffe FC	Merthyr Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	3.2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:30 +3’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Radcliffe FC 1–0–1 Merthyr Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town
20/09/25 England National League North	Merthyr Town	0-5 HT 0-3	Radcliffe FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Radcliffe FC	Merthyr Town
Chorley	0-3 L	1-1 D
Scarborough Athletic	4-1 W	0-0 D
Oxford City	0-3 L	0-3 L
Darlington 1883	0-1 L	1-1 D
Marine	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Merthyr Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Radcliffe FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Chorley England National League North	0-2	0-3	4	5	L
24/10	Brackley England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/10	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
10/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
26/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	1-4	3	5	L
12/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
08/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	3-1	5-1	10	4	W
05/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
29/08	Marine England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L

Merthyr Town

DLWWDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
24/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	1-3	10	6	L
17/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Radcliffe FC vs Merthyr Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Radcliffe FC win (39%). Probabilities: Radcliffe FC 39%, draw 26%, Merthyr Town 35%.

How many goals are expected in Radcliffe FC vs Merthyr Town?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Radcliffe FC 1.48 · Merthyr Town 1.41), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Radcliffe FC vs Merthyr Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.