Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Spalding United vs Darlington 1883

Team pages: Spalding United · Darlington 1883

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Spalding United1.64

Darlington 18831.35

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Spalding United Draw Darlington 1883

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spalding United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLLLD

Darlington 1883 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spalding United 1510 · Darlington 1883 1453

	Spalding United	Draw	Darlington 1883
Our model	43%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spalding United (rating 1510 vs 1453).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spalding United	Darlington 1883
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:35 +9’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spalding United	Darlington 1883
Marine	0-1 L	1-2 L
Chorley	1-2 L	2-5 L
Spennymoor Town	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spalding United

LWDWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
24/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
10/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/09	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
08/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
05/09	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	Worksop England National League North	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
22/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Darlington 1883

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
24/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
17/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spalding United vs Darlington 1883?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spalding United win (43%). Probabilities: Spalding United 43%, draw 26%, Darlington 1883 31%.

How many goals are expected in Spalding United vs Darlington 1883?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Spalding United 1.64 · Darlington 1883 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spalding United vs Darlington 1883?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.