Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Radcliffe FC vs Chorley

Team pages: Radcliffe FC · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Radcliffe FC1.53

Chorley1.49

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Radcliffe FC Draw Chorley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Radcliffe FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLWWW

Chorley 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Radcliffe FC 3–1–1 Chorley (5 last)

Chorley0-1Radcliffe FC
Radcliffe FC2-2Chorley
Chorley5-0Radcliffe FC
Radcliffe FC2-0Chorley
Radcliffe FC3-1Chorley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Radcliffe FC 1495 · Chorley 1518

	Radcliffe FC	Draw	Chorley
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Radcliffe FC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Radcliffe FC	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +7’	2.40	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Radcliffe FC 3–1–1 Chorley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League North	Chorley	0-1 HT 0-0	Radcliffe FC
08/11/25 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Chorley
21/04/25 England National League North	Chorley	5-0 HT 2-0	Radcliffe FC
18/02/25 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Chorley
12/09/20 Club Friendly List	Radcliffe FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Chorley

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Radcliffe FC	Chorley
Brackley	1-0 W	2-2 D
Scarborough Athletic	4-1 W	2-1 W
Oxford City	0-3 L	0-4 L
Darlington 1883	0-1 L	5-2 W
Marine	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Radcliffe FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Radcliffe FC

WLLLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Brackley England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/10	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
10/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
26/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	1-4	3	5	L
12/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
08/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	3-1	5-1	10	4	W
05/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
29/08	Marine England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
22/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	8	W

Chorley

WWDDLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Buxton England National League North	1-2	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Radcliffe FC vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Radcliffe FC win (38%). Probabilities: Radcliffe FC 38%, draw 26%, Chorley 36%.

How many goals are expected in Radcliffe FC vs Chorley?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Radcliffe FC 1.53 · Chorley 1.49), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Radcliffe FC vs Chorley?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.