Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Spennymoor Town vs South Shields

Team pages: Spennymoor Town · South Shields

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Spennymoor Town1.41

South Shields2.26

1X2

22% 22% 56%

Spennymoor Town Draw South Shields

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Spennymoor Town 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDDLL

South Shields 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Spennymoor Town 2–2–2 South Shields (6 last)

Spennymoor Town1-1South Shields
South Shields6-0Spennymoor Town
South Shields0-2Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town1-1South Shields
Spennymoor Town2-1South Shields
South Shields2-0Spennymoor Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spennymoor Town 1430 · South Shields 1555

	Spennymoor Town	Draw	South Shields
Our model	22%	22%	56%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1430 vs 1555).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spennymoor Town	South Shields
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.90

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +6’	4.10	3.90	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spennymoor Town 2–2–2 South Shields

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-1 HT 0-1	South Shields
26/12/25 England National League North	South Shields	6-0 HT 3-0	Spennymoor Town
21/04/25 England National League North	South Shields	0-2 HT 0-1	Spennymoor Town
26/12/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-1 HT 1-1	South Shields
16/11/24 England FA Trophy	Spennymoor Town	2-1 HT 2-1	South Shields
29/03/24 England National League North	South Shields	2-0 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spennymoor Town	South Shields
Brackley	1-2 L	2-3 L
Macclesfield	1-1 D	3-4 L
Spalding United	1-3 L	1-1 D
Hereford FC	1-2 L	0-6 L
Hednesford	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spennymoor Town

LLLDLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
10/10	Brackley England National League North	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/09	Southport England National League North	0-2	2-2	3	2	D
12/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L

South Shields

WDDWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chester England National League North	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
10/10	Macclesfield England National League North	3-2	3-4	4	6	L
29/09	Brackley England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
26/09	Buxton England National League North	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spennymoor Town vs South Shields?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South Shields win (56%). Probabilities: Spennymoor Town 22%, draw 22%, South Shields 56%.

How many goals are expected in Spennymoor Town vs South Shields?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Spennymoor Town 1.41 · South Shields 2.26), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs South Shields?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.