Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Buxton vs Marine

Team pages: Buxton · Marine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Buxton1.85

Marine1.12

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Buxton Draw Marine

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Buxton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLDWW

Marine 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Buxton 3–1–2 Marine (6 last)

Buxton4-0Marine
Marine2-3Buxton
Marine2-1Buxton
Marine1-4Buxton
Buxton1-2Marine
Marine1-1Buxton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buxton 1530 · Marine 1539

	Buxton	Draw	Marine
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Buxton: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buxton	Marine
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +38’	1.67	3.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Buxton 3–1–2 Marine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League North	Buxton	4-0 HT 0-0	Marine
27/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Marine	2-3 HT 0-1	Buxton
16/08/25 England National League North	Marine	2-1 HT 1-0	Buxton
25/01/25 England National League North	Marine	1-4 HT 1-1	Buxton
26/08/24 England National League North	Buxton	1-2 HT 0-2	Marine
13/04/19 England Northern Premier League	Marine	1-1	Buxton

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Buxton	Marine
Harborough Town	3-0 W	1-2 L
Worksop	2-2 D	0-1 L
Kings Lynn Town	0-1 L	4-1 W
South Shields	0-4 L	1-2 L
Chester	3-1 W	1-2 L
Merthyr Town	2-1 W	2-1 W
Oxford City	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Buxton

WWLWWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
24/10	Chorley England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
17/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
10/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W

Marine

WWLLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
24/10	Oxford City England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
10/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
12/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
08/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	Harborough Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	4-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Marine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Buxton win (54%). Probabilities: Buxton 54%, draw 24%, Marine 22%.

How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Marine?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Buxton 1.85 · Marine 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Buxton vs Marine?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.