Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Telford vs Spalding United

Team pages: AFC Telford · Spalding United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

AFC Telford1.51

Spalding United1.18

1X2

44% 27% 29%

AFC Telford Draw Spalding United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Telford 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWDWW

Spalding United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLLDW

Head-to-head

AFC Telford 1–1–0 Spalding United (2 last)

AFC Telford1-1Spalding United
Spalding United0-1AFC Telford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1510 · Spalding United 1520

	AFC Telford	Draw	Spalding United
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Telford	Spalding United
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +39’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Telford 1–1–0 Spalding United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/25 England Southern Premier League Central	AFC Telford	1-1 HT 1-0	Spalding United
24/08/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Spalding United	0-1	AFC Telford

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Telford	Spalding United
Southport	2-1 W	2-0 W
Darlington 1883	2-1 W	3-2 W
Chorley	1-2 L	1-2 L
Bedford Town	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Spalding United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Telford

LWWDLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Southport England National League North	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
27/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
17/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L

Spalding United

WDWWWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
27/10	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
24/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
10/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/09	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
08/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
05/09	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	Worksop England National League North	2-0	3-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Spalding United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Telford win (44%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 44%, draw 27%, Spalding United 29%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Spalding United?

The model expects 2.69 goals (AFC Telford 1.51 · Spalding United 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Spalding United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.