Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Hednesford vs Morecambe

Team pages: Hednesford · Morecambe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Hednesford1.24

Morecambe1.23

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Hednesford Draw Morecambe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hednesford 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Morecambe 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hednesford 1537 · Morecambe 1564

	Hednesford	Draw	Morecambe
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	37%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hednesford	Morecambe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +3’	2.40	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hednesford	Morecambe
Chester	1-0 W	1-0 W
Brackley	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Morecambe (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hednesford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
27/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
24/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/10	Brackley England National League North	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
10/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
12/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
08/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	1-1	6	4	D

Morecambe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
27/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
24/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
10/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/08	AFC Telford England National League North	2-0	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hednesford vs Morecambe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hednesford win (36%). Probabilities: Hednesford 36%, draw 28%, Morecambe 36%.

How many goals are expected in Hednesford vs Morecambe?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Hednesford 1.24 · Morecambe 1.23), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hednesford vs Morecambe?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.