Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Chorley vs Hereford FC

Team pages: Chorley · Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Chorley1.51

Hereford FC1.6

1X2

35% 26% 39%

Chorley Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorley 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWWLWL

Hereford FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Chorley 3–1–2 Hereford FC (6 last)

Chorley4-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC1-4Chorley
Hereford FC1-0Chorley
Chorley1-1Hereford FC
Hereford FC0-1Chorley
Chorley1-2Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorley 1523 · Hereford FC 1495

	Chorley	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chorley: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorley	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.8	2.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:20 +7’	2.55	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 3–1–2 Hereford FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League North	Chorley	4-2 HT 1-1	Hereford FC
23/08/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-4 HT 0-3	Chorley
14/12/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Chorley
17/08/24 England National League North	Chorley	1-1 HT 1-0	Hereford FC
09/03/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Chorley
28/10/23 England National League North	Chorley	1-2 HT 0-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorley	Hereford FC
Spennymoor Town	0-2 L	2-1 W
AFC Telford	2-1 W	0-1 L
Kings Lynn Town	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorley

DDLWLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
27/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/10	Buxton England National League North	1-2	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D

Hereford FC

DWWWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
27/10	AFC Telford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
24/10	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
10/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
26/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorley vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hereford FC win (39%). Probabilities: Chorley 35%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Chorley vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Chorley 1.51 · Hereford FC 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorley vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.