Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Hebburn Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Merthyr Town1.65

Hebburn Town1.43

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Merthyr Town Draw Hebburn Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Hebburn Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1462 · Hebburn Town 1444

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Hebburn Town
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Hebburn Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/0/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +6’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merthyr Town	Hebburn Town
Radcliffe FC	3-3 D	1-5 L
Oxford City	0-3 L	0-3 L
Kings Lynn Town	1-1 D	4-2 W
Darlington 1883	1-1 D	1-1 D
Scarborough Athletic	0-0 D	0-2 L
Chester	1-0 W	1-1 D
Macclesfield	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Merthyr Town (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-1	3-3	9	2	D
27/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
24/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	1-3	10	6	L
17/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L

Hebburn Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
17/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
10/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Hednesford England National League North	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
08/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-3	1-5	5	4	L
05/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
29/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-2	4-2	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merthyr Town win (42%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 42%, draw 25%, Hebburn Town 33%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Merthyr Town 1.65 · Hebburn Town 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.