Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Scarborough Athletic vs Buxton

Team pages: Scarborough Athletic · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Scarborough Athletic1.41

Buxton1.63

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Scarborough Athletic Draw Buxton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Scarborough Athletic 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDLWLL

Buxton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDWWW

Head-to-head

Scarborough Athletic 1–1–4 Buxton (6 last)

Buxton4-2Scarborough Athletic
Buxton2-0Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic2-1Buxton
Scarborough Athletic0-3Buxton
Buxton2-0Scarborough Athletic
Buxton0-0Scarborough Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scarborough Athletic 1469 · Buxton 1548

	Scarborough Athletic	Draw	Buxton
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buxton (rating 1469 vs 1548).
H2H favours Buxton: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scarborough Athletic	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +7’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Scarborough Athletic 1–1–4 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 England National League North	Buxton	4-2 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic
11/04/26 England National League North	Buxton	2-0 HT 1-0	Scarborough Athletic
02/09/25 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	2-1 HT 2-1	Buxton
12/04/25 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	0-3 HT 0-1	Buxton
05/11/24 England National League North	Buxton	2-0 HT 1-0	Scarborough Athletic
02/03/24 England National League North	Buxton	0-0 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Scarborough Athletic	Buxton
Morecambe	0-2 L	0-4 L
Brackley	1-1 D	5-0 W
Merthyr Town	0-0 D	2-1 W
Kings Lynn Town	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Scarborough Athletic

WLLDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
24/10	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	12	7	L
17/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
10/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
26/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
31/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Southport England National League North	3-0	5-1	5	1	W

Buxton

WLWWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Marine England National League North	1-0	4-2	3	1	W
27/10	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
24/10	Chorley England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
17/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
10/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scarborough Athletic vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buxton win (42%). Probabilities: Scarborough Athletic 32%, draw 26%, Buxton 42%.

How many goals are expected in Scarborough Athletic vs Buxton?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Scarborough Athletic 1.41 · Buxton 1.63), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs Buxton?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.