Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hereford FC vs Kings Lynn Town

Team pages: Hereford FC · Kings Lynn Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Hereford FC1.73

Kings Lynn Town1.25

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Hereford FC Draw Kings Lynn Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hereford FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLWL

Kings Lynn Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWDDL

Head-to-head

Hereford FC 1–4–1 Kings Lynn Town (6 last)

Kings Lynn Town0-0Hereford FC
Hereford FC0-2Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town0-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC0-0Kings Lynn Town
Hereford FC2-2Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town2-2Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1542 · Kings Lynn Town 1499

	Hereford FC	Draw	Kings Lynn Town
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1542 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hereford FC	Kings Lynn Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.2	2.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +4’	1.90	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 1–4–1 Kings Lynn Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Hereford FC
16/08/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Kings Lynn Town
15/02/25 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	0-2 HT 0-1	Hereford FC
21/09/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Kings Lynn Town
20/01/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Kings Lynn Town
05/08/23 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	2-2 HT 1-1	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hereford FC	Kings Lynn Town
AFC Telford	0-1 L	5-0 W
Hednesford	0-1 L	2-3 L
Southport	1-0 W	0-0 D
Worksop	3-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hereford FC

WDWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	AFC Telford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
24/10	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
10/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
26/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W

Kings Lynn Town

LWWLWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	0-5	4	1	L
24/10	Southport England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
17/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
12/09	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-0	0	7	W
08/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
05/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
29/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs Kings Lynn Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hereford FC win (47%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 47%, draw 26%, Kings Lynn Town 27%.

How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs Kings Lynn Town?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Hereford FC 1.73 · Kings Lynn Town 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs Kings Lynn Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.