Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Oxford City vs South Shields

Team pages: Oxford City · South Shields

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Oxford City1.76

South Shields1.69

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Oxford City Draw South Shields

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDWDW

South Shields 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Oxford City 1–3 South Shields (4 last)

Oxford City1-3South Shields
South Shields4-1Oxford City
South Shields1-2Oxford City
Oxford City1-4South Shields

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1589 · South Shields 1568

	Oxford City	Draw	South Shields
Our model	39%	24%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Shields: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	South Shields
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.7	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +5’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxford City 1–0–3 South Shields

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 England National League North	Oxford City	1-3 HT 1-1	South Shields
18/11/25 England National League North	South Shields	4-1 HT 2-1	Oxford City
18/03/25 England National League North	South Shields	1-2 HT 1-0	Oxford City
24/08/24 England National League North	Oxford City	1-4 HT 1-1	South Shields

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxford City	South Shields
Merthyr Town	3-0 W	1-1 D
Marine	1-1 D	2-1 W
Buxton	2-3 L	4-0 W
Spennymoor Town	4-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxford City

WLWWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	10	5	W
24/10	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
08/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W

South Shields

DDWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/10	Chester England National League North	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
10/10	Macclesfield England National League North	3-2	3-4	4	6	L
29/09	Brackley England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
26/09	Buxton England National League North	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs South Shields?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (39%). Probabilities: Oxford City 39%, draw 25%, South Shields 36%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs South Shields?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Oxford City 1.76 · South Shields 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs South Shields?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.