Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Spennymoor Town vs Chorley

Team pages: Spennymoor Town · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Spennymoor Town1.4

Chorley1.52

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Spennymoor Town Draw Chorley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Spennymoor Town 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDLLL

Chorley 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Spennymoor Town 2–1–3 Chorley (6 last)

Spennymoor Town1-0Chorley
Chorley0-0Spennymoor Town
Chorley4-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town1-2Chorley
Spennymoor Town1-0Chorley
Chorley2-1Spennymoor Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spennymoor Town 1442 · Chorley 1525

	Spennymoor Town	Draw	Chorley
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chorley (rating 1442 vs 1525).
H2H favours Chorley: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spennymoor Town	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3	1.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:32 +1’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spennymoor Town 2–1–3 Chorley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Chorley
25/11/25 England National League North	Chorley	0-0 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town
29/03/25 England National League North	Chorley	4-0 HT 1-0	Spennymoor Town
26/10/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-2 HT 0-1	Chorley
28/09/24 England FA Cup Qualification	Spennymoor Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Chorley
13/02/24 England National League North	Chorley	2-1 HT 0-1	Spennymoor Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spennymoor Town	Chorley
Darlington 1883	0-3 L	5-2 W
Brackley	1-2 L	2-2 D
Spalding United	1-3 L	2-1 W
Oxford City	1-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spennymoor Town

LLDLLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
24/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
10/10	Brackley England National League North	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/09	Southport England National League North	0-2	2-2	3	2	D
12/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L

Chorley

WDDLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/10	Buxton England National League North	1-2	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chorley win (40%). Probabilities: Spennymoor Town 34%, draw 26%, Chorley 40%.

How many goals are expected in Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Spennymoor Town 1.4 · Chorley 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.