Football · England National League North · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: South Shields vs Southport

Team pages: South Shields · Southport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

South Shields2.33

Southport0.97

1X2

67% 19% 14%

South Shields Draw Southport

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

South Shields 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLWWW

Southport 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLLDL

Head-to-head

South Shields 2–2–2 Southport (6 last)

South Shields1-0Southport
Southport0-0South Shields
South Shields0-0Southport
Southport3-0South Shields
South Shields3-0Southport
Southport4-0South Shields

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Shields 1571 · Southport 1410

	South Shields	Draw	Southport
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1571 vs 1410).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Shields	Southport
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	0.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +8’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Shields 2–2–2 Southport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 England National League North	South Shields	1-0 HT 0-0	Southport
06/09/25 England National League North	Southport	0-0 HT 0-0	South Shields
12/04/25 England National League North	South Shields	0-0 HT 0-0	Southport
12/10/24 England National League North	Southport	3-0 HT 1-0	South Shields
20/04/24 England National League North	South Shields	3-0 HT 2-0	Southport
18/11/23 England FA Trophy	Southport	4-0 HT 2-0	South Shields

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	14	9	2	3	25	19	29
2	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
3	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
4	Hereford FC	14	8	2	4	24	11	26
5	Buxton	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
6	Kings Lynn Town	15	7	3	5	25	21	24
7	Hednesford	15	7	3	5	24	20	24
8	Morecambe	14	7	2	5	21	12	23
9	Chester	14	7	2	5	17	14	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	Spalding United	14	6	3	5	19	15	21
12	Chorley	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
13	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
14	Hebburn Town	14	5	5	4	19	24	20
15	AFC Telford	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
16	Brackley	15	5	4	6	18	26	19
17	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
18	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
19	Merthyr Town	15	3	7	5	18	22	16
20	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
21	Scarborough Athletic	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	14	2	4	8	14	25	10
24	Spennymoor Town	14	2	4	8	14	27	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Shields	Southport
Spennymoor Town	1-0 W	2-2 D
Hereford FC	0-6 L	0-1 L
Spalding United	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: South Shields (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Shields

DWWLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Oxford City England National League North	3-1	3-1	0	7	W
27/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/10	Chester England National League North	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
10/10	Macclesfield England National League North	3-2	3-4	4	6	L
29/09	Brackley England National League North	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
26/09	Buxton England National League North	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D

Southport

LLLWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
24/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
10/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
26/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Southport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (67%). Probabilities: South Shields 67%, draw 19%, Southport 14%.

How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Southport?

The model expects 3.29 goals (South Shields 2.33 · Southport 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in South Shields vs Southport?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.