Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chorley vs Buxton

Team pages: Chorley · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Chorley1.42

Buxton1.62

1X2

33% 26% 42%

Chorley Draw Buxton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorley 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Buxton 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLLD

Head-to-head

Chorley 2–4 Buxton (6 last)

Chorley1-2Buxton
Buxton3-2Chorley
Buxton1-0Chorley
Chorley3-0Buxton
Buxton3-1Chorley
Chorley3-2Buxton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorley 1531 · Buxton 1493

	Chorley	Draw	Buxton
Our model	32%	26%	41%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Buxton: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorley	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +21’	2.75	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 2–0–4 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League North	Chorley	1-2 HT 1-0	Buxton
18/10/25 England National League North	Buxton	3-2 HT 1-0	Chorley
18/04/25 England National League North	Buxton	1-0 HT 1-0	Chorley
04/02/25 England National League North	Chorley	3-0 HT 1-0	Buxton
06/04/24 England National League North	Buxton	3-1 HT 1-0	Chorley
12/12/23 England National League North	Chorley	3-2 HT 1-1	Buxton

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorley	Buxton
Kings Lynn Town	0-2 L	0-1 L
Oxford City	0-4 L	3-2 W
Brackley	2-2 D	5-0 W
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
South Shields	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L

Buxton

LLWWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
10/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/08	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorley vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buxton win (42%). Probabilities: Chorley 33%, draw 26%, Buxton 42%.

How many goals are expected in Chorley vs Buxton?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Chorley 1.42 · Buxton 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorley vs Buxton?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.