Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Darlington 1883 vs Spennymoor Town

Team pages: Darlington 1883 · Spennymoor Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Darlington 18831.87

Spennymoor Town1.56

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Darlington 1883 Draw Spennymoor Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Darlington 1883 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDDL

Spennymoor Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Darlington 1883 3–3 Spennymoor Town (6 last)

Spennymoor Town0-4Darlington 1883
Darlington 18831-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-1Darlington 1883
Darlington 18831-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-1Darlington 1883
Darlington 18831-2Spennymoor Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darlington 1883 1464 · Spennymoor Town 1442

	Darlington 1883	Draw	Spennymoor Town
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darlington 1883	Spennymoor Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +2’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Darlington 1883 3–0–3 Spennymoor Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	0-4 HT 0-1	Darlington 1883
22/11/25 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-0 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town
04/03/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-1 HT 0-0	Darlington 1883
31/08/24 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-0 HT 1-0	Spennymoor Town
09/03/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-1 HT 2-1	Darlington 1883
28/10/23 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-2 HT 0-1	Spennymoor Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darlington 1883	Spennymoor Town
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Macclesfield	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Spennymoor Town (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darlington 1883

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L
18/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Spennymoor Town

WLLLDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Brackley England National League North	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/09	Southport England National League North	0-2	2-2	3	2	D
12/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darlington 1883 vs Spennymoor Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darlington 1883 win (44%). Probabilities: Darlington 1883 44%, draw 25%, Spennymoor Town 31%.

How many goals are expected in Darlington 1883 vs Spennymoor Town?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Darlington 1883 1.87 · Spennymoor Town 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Darlington 1883 vs Spennymoor Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.