Football · England National League North · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Macclesfield vs Hereford FC

Team pages: Macclesfield · Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Macclesfield1.66

Hereford FC1.05

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Macclesfield Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Macclesfield 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDDWW

Hereford FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Macclesfield 2–0 Hereford FC (2 last)

Hereford FC0-2Macclesfield
Macclesfield3-1Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Macclesfield 1595 · Hereford FC 1541

	Macclesfield	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macclesfield (rating 1595 vs 1541).
H2H favours Macclesfield: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Macclesfield	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +24’	1.73	3.75	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Macclesfield 2–0–0 Hereford FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Macclesfield
21/03/26 England National League North	Macclesfield	3-1 HT 0-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Kings Lynn Town	12	6	2	4	22	16	20
5	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
6	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
7	Hednesford	12	5	3	4	21	19	18
8	Hebburn Town	12	5	3	4	16	21	18
9	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
10	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
11	Buxton	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
12	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
13	Worksop	12	5	1	6	14	19	16
14	Scarborough Athletic	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14	13	15
16	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
17	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
18	Brackley	12	4	3	5	15	23	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
20	Radcliffe FC	12	4	0	8	15	21	12
21	AFC Telford	12	3	3	6	11	18	12
22	Southport	12	2	3	7	13	23	9
23	Darlington 1883	12	2	2	8	14	24	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Macclesfield	Hereford FC
South Shields	4-3 W	6-0 W
Harborough Town	1-0 W	3-0 W
Spennymoor Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Radcliffe FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Macclesfield

WDWWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	South Shields England National League North	2-3	4-3	3	6	W
26/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
12/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
08/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
31/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
22/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
15/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	2-1	4	2	W

Hereford FC

WWWDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
26/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Macclesfield vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Macclesfield win (51%). Probabilities: Macclesfield 51%, draw 25%, Hereford FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Macclesfield vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Macclesfield 1.66 · Hereford FC 1.05), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Macclesfield vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.