Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Hednesford

Team pages: Bedford Town · Hednesford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Bedford Town1.15

Hednesford1.5

1X2

29% 27% 45%

Bedford Town Draw Hednesford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Hednesford 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bedford Town 1–1 Hednesford (2 last)

Bedford Town1-3Hednesford
Hednesford1-2Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1555 · Hednesford 1539

	Bedford Town	Draw	Hednesford
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Hednesford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +12’	3.10	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 1–0–1 Hednesford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/01/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Bedford Town	1-3	Hednesford
27/08/22 England Southern Premier League Central	Hednesford	1-2	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Hednesford
Hereford FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Spalding United	1-2 L	2-0 W
Radcliffe FC	1-0 W	4-1 W
AFC Telford	1-0 W	1-1 D
Spennymoor Town	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hednesford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bedford Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
10/10	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
26/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
12/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
08/09	Worksop England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
31/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W

Hednesford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/10	Brackley England National League North	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
10/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
12/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
08/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Hednesford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hednesford win (45%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 29%, draw 27%, Hednesford 45%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Hednesford?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Bedford Town 1.15 · Hednesford 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Hednesford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.