Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Buxton vs Harborough Town

Team pages: Buxton · Harborough Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Buxton1.59

Harborough Town1.26

1X2

44% 26% 29%

Buxton Draw Harborough Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Buxton 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Harborough Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buxton 1501 · Harborough Town 1518

	Buxton	Draw	Harborough Town
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buxton	Harborough Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +6’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Buxton	Harborough Town
Worksop	2-2 D	1-1 D
Brackley	5-0 W	0-1 L
Oxford City	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Buxton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chorley England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
17/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
10/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L

Harborough Town

DWLWLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/10	Southport England National League North	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
26/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
08/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
05/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
31/08	Marine England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
22/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	4-2	9	0	W
18/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Harborough Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Buxton win (44%). Probabilities: Buxton 44%, draw 26%, Harborough Town 29%.

How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Harborough Town?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Buxton 1.59 · Harborough Town 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Buxton vs Harborough Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.