Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Hereford FC vs AFC Telford

Team pages: Hereford FC · AFC Telford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Hereford FC1.78

AFC Telford1.16

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Hereford FC Draw AFC Telford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hereford FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDLW

AFC Telford 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDLLWD

Head-to-head

Hereford FC 2–3–1 AFC Telford (6 last)

AFC Telford3-0Hereford FC
Hereford FC1-1AFC Telford
Hereford FC0-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford0-1Hereford FC
Hereford FC1-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford0-0Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1562 · AFC Telford 1486

	Hereford FC	Draw	AFC Telford
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1562 vs 1486).
H2H favours Hereford FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hereford FC	AFC Telford
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +2’	1.75	3.60	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 2–3–1 AFC Telford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England National League North	AFC Telford	3-0 HT 1-0	Hereford FC
21/10/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Telford
11/03/23 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Telford
12/11/22 England National League North	AFC Telford	0-1 HT 0-1	Hereford FC
15/04/22 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
30/08/21 England National League North	AFC Telford	0-0 HT 0-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hereford FC	AFC Telford
Hednesford	0-1 L	1-1 D
Bedford Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Harborough Town	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hereford FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
10/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
26/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W

AFC Telford

DLLWWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
17/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs AFC Telford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hereford FC win (51%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 51%, draw 25%, AFC Telford 24%.

How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs AFC Telford?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Hereford FC 1.78 · AFC Telford 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs AFC Telford?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.